Aliens, Elections, Super Bowl: Nevada Calls Kalshi and Polymarket Unlicensed Sports Betting
Nevada stands at the center of a growing conflict between state gambling regulations and federal authority over prediction markets run by companies like Kalshi and Polymarket.
These platforms enable trading contracts on future outcomes in sports, politics, and more. Kalshi's Super Bowl contracts exceeded $1 billion in volume. These platforms accurately favored Pres. Trump (R) in 2024 despite traditional polls favoring Harris (D). Suspicious large bets on Polymarket preceded events like Maduro's capture, sparking insider trading concerns. The most intriguing markets feature bizarre bets such as the government confirming aliens exist, Jesus returning in 2027, and Elon Musk being identified as Satoshi Nakamoto, and other high-stakes wagers on geopolitical developments.
Nevada regulators treat prediction market contracts as unlicensed gambling. The Nevada Gaming Control Board issued a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi in March 2025 for offering unlicensed event-based contracts on sports and elections.
In November 2025, a federal judge ruled that Kalshi's sports-related event contracts are subject to Nevada's gaming laws and dissolved a prior injunction that had protected the platform, leading Kalshi to appeal to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. In January 2026, a Nevada court issued a temporary restraining order blocking rival prediction market Polymarket from offering event-based contracts in the state. Then, in February 2026, the Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi's emergency motion for an administrative stay, allowing the Nevada Gaming Control Board to quickly file a civil enforcement action in Carson City District Court to stop Kalshi from offering those contracts, which regulators call illegal unlicensed gambling, prompting Kalshi to remove the case to federal court while arguing that federal rules from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission should override Nevada's laws.
Nevada's casino industry backs these restrictions, fearing revenue loss to unlicensed prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, under Chairman Michael Selig in the Trump administration, supports the platforms and has filed friend-of-the-court briefs asserting federal commodity rules preempt state gambling laws.
Rep. Dina Titus (D) introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act to ban sports and casino-related event contracts on federally regulated platforms, arguing they evade state rules.
Nevada Senators Jacky Rosen (D) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D) have criticized the platforms in statements and letters for undermining state oversight.
The ongoing appeals in prediction market cases will determine whether these platforms can continue operating in Nevada without complying with the state's local gambling restrictions. Meanwhile, legislative efforts to address prediction markets face limited traction in the Republican-controlled Congress. Nevada's mostly Democratic congressional delegation holds minimal influence, as their partisan criticisms of Republican colleagues cause their input to be largely ignored. More professional, bipartisan cooperation might earn them a hearing in the future, but for now, their current partisan approach leaves Nevada with little voice in Congress.
