Shifting voter confidence in Nevada
In the wake of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a revealing poll conducted by The Tarrance Group for the Democracy Defense Project has shed light on the evolving landscape of voter confidence in Nevada. The survey, one of the first major post-election snapshots, highlights stark partisan shifts in trust toward the electoral process, alongside broader voter sentiments on election integrity measures. Conducted from July 12-16, 2025, with 550 likely Nevada voters, the poll offers a window into the Silver State’s complex political dynamics, especially as it remains a critical swing state.
The 2025 poll reveals a dramatic reversal in voter confidence between Democrats and Republicans in Nevada since the 2024 election. According to the survey, only 62% of Nevada Democrats expressed confidence in July 2025 that election results were counted accurately nationwide, a steep 28-percentage-point drop from September 2024, when nearly 90% of Democrats trusted the then-upcoming election process.
In contrast, Republican confidence has surged. The poll found that 76% of Nevada Republicans surveyed in July 2025 believed votes were accurately counted during the 2024 presidential election, a 26-percentage-point increase from September 2024, when only about 50% expressed similar trust. This uptick aligns with the 2024 election outcome, where Pres. Trump flipped Nevada for the Republicans, winning by over 3.10% and becoming the first GOP candidate to carry the state since George W. Bush in 2004. Trump’s gains among Latino and Filipino voters were pivotal, and his record-setting 751,205 votes in Nevada may have bolstered Republican faith in the system.
Despite these partisan divides, the poll suggests a baseline of trust across party lines, with 62% of Democrats and 76% of Republicans agreeing that votes were accurately cast and counted in 2024. This convergence indicates that while confidence levels vary, a majority of Nevadans still believe in the fundamental integrity of the electoral process.
The contrasting trends in voter confidence can be traced to several factors. For Democrats, the loss of Nevada in the 2024 presidential election, coupled with national narratives around election security, may have sown doubt. The poll’s timing—post-election but before the 2026 midterms—captures a moment of reflection for Democrats, who may feel disillusioned after losing a state they had won in the previous four presidential cycles. Additionally, Democratic concerns about Republican-led lawsuits challenging Nevada’s voter rolls and mail ballot laws, noted in a pre-election 2024 poll, could have lingered, further eroding trust.
For Republicans, the 2024 victory likely validated their electoral participation. Unlike 2020, when unfounded claims of widespread voter fraud dominated Republican discourse, elected Republicans in 2024 largely moved away from such narratives, focusing instead on policy issues like the economy and immigration. This shift may have reassured GOP voters that the system worked in their favor.
Another factor influencing confidence is Nevada’s unique electoral system. Since 2021, the state has mailed ballots to all active registered voters, a policy that has been contentious. While 70% of poll respondents supported ending mass mail voting, the system’s implementation in 2024 appeared to function smoothly, potentially boosting Republican trust given their strong early voting performance. In October 2024, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by 159,388 to 140,878, a trend described as “unheard of” by analysts, which may have set the stage for their post-election confidence.
The 2025 poll also probed Nevadans’ views on election reforms, revealing strong support for measures aimed at enhancing security and transparency. Key findings include:
Voter ID Requirements: 66% of respondents favored requiring voter ID, with only about one-third opposed. This aligns with a September 2024 poll by The Tarrance Group, which found 71% support for voter ID, including 92% of Republicans, 49% of Democrats, and 73% of independents. A proposed constitutional amendment for voter ID, set to appear on the 2026 ballot, underscores this issue’s bipartisan appeal.
Standardizing Ballot Drop Boxes: 82% supported standardizing rules for ballot drop boxes, reflecting a desire for consistent election administration. Only 17% were unsure or opposed.
Ending Late Ballot Counting: 54% favored not counting ballots received after Election Day, a Republican-backed proposal, while 46% opposed it. This split highlights ongoing debates about election deadlines.
Open Primaries: 66% supported open primaries, allowing non-partisan voters to participate, though a Democrat-backed proposal for this was vetoed by Governor Joe Lombardo in June 2025.
These preferences suggest Nevadans prioritize reforms that balance accessibility with security. However, trust in election workers remains mixed, with 40% viewing them as “partisans trying to manipulate the process” and 60% seeing them as “important volunteers.” This skepticism underscores the need for greater public education about election administration.
Nevada’s status as a swing state remains undeniable. With six electoral votes, it was a linchpin in 2024, flipping to Pres. Trump after voting Democratic in the prior four presidential elections. The state’s close margins—Biden won by 2% in 2020, Clinton by 2% in 2016—highlight its competitiveness. The 2025 poll’s findings suggest that voter confidence will continue to shape turnout and preferences, particularly as nonpartisan voters grow in influence.
The rise of nonpartisan voters, combined with Nevada’s diverse electorate, makes polling challenging. The 2024 election demonstrated this, as Pres. Trump’s appeal to working-class and minority voters defied earlier Democratic leads in surveys. Moving forward, campaigns will need sophisticated targeting to reach these voters, especially in a state where mail ballots and early voting dominate.
